The Field Poll's Record in Measuring Statewide Ballot Propositions in California (1996 - Present) The table following compares election outcomes on all statewide propositions elections in California since 1996 covered by The Field Poll to the poll's initial and final pre-election measurements. A total of 80 salient ballot propositions were tracked by the poll for its media clients during this period. Comparing the FINAL pre-election Field Poll and proposition election outcomes The final pre-election Field Poll, typically completed within one week of the election, has been an excellent predictor of election outcomes. When examining the 80 proposition contests covered by The Field Poll during this period, the poll's final published results were consistent with the election outcome 75 times, or 94% of the time. (Note: This includes one contest in which the final poll showed the proposition tied, but trending downward, and which was ultimately defeated on Election Day.) Comparing the INITIAL pre-election Field Poll to proposition election outcomes Comparisons between the outcome of these 80 propositions to their standing in the initial Field Poll measurement, typically conducted two to four months prior to the election, show the following: Fifty-one of the 80 propositions measured by The Field Poll started out with a statistically significant lead in the poll's initial survey of voters. Of these, 32, or 63%, were ultimately approved by voters on Election Day. The remaining 29 of the 80 propositions either trailed in the poll's initial measurement (18 cases) or were statistically tied (11 cases). Of these, just 5, or 17%, were approved by voters on Election Day.

Comparing Pre-Election Field Poll Preference Measures on Statewide Ballot Proposition Contests to Election Outcomes (1996-present)   Year Prop. # Topic Initial Field Poll Final Field Poll Election Outcome Final Poll Consistent with Outcome? (Yes/No/ Undecided) (Yes/No/ Undecided) (Yes/No)   2008 99 Eminent Domain 48/30/22* 48/30/22* 62/38 Yes 2008 98 Eminent Domain 33/43/24* 33/43/24* 39/61 Yes 2008 97 Indian Gaming 39/33/28 47/34/19 56/44 Yes 2008 96 Indian Gaming 39/33/28 47/34/19 56/44 Yes 2008 95 Indian Gaming 39/33/28 47/34/19 56/44 Yes 2008 94 Indian Gaming 39/33/28 47/34/19 56/44 Yes 2008 93 Term Limits Reform 49/31/20 33/46/21 46/54 Yes 2006 90 Eminent Domain 46/31/23 35/42/23 48/52 Yes 2006 87 Oil Producers Tax 52/31/17 40/44/16 45/55 Yes 2006 86 Cigarette Tax 63/32/5 45/45/10 48/52 Yes 2006 85 Parental Notice/Teen Abortion 44/45/11 46/43/11 46/54 No 2006 84 Water Quality/Parks Bond 49/31/20 51/31/18 54/46 Yes 2006 83 Sex Offenders 76/11/13* 76/11/13* 71/29 Yes 2006 1E Disaster Preparedness/Flood Bond 58/25/17 53/27/20 64/36 Yes 2006 1D Education Facilities Bond 48/34/18 55/29/16 57/43 Yes 2006 1C Housing Bond 39/38/23 51/31/18 58/42 Yes 2006 1B Transportation Bond 57/24/19 55/29/16 61/39 Yes 2006 82 Pre-School Education 55/34/11 41/46/13 39/61 Yes 2005 80 Electricity Regulation 33/35/32 24/48/28 34/66 Yes 2005 79 Rx Drug Discounts (II) 48/33/19 37/43/20 39/61 Yes 2005 78 Rx Drug Discounts (I) 57/26/17 36/45/19 41/59 Yes 2005 77 Redistricting 35/46/19 35/51/14 40/60 Yes 2005 76 Spending / School Funding Limits 35/42/23 32/60/8 38/62 Yes 2005 75 Union Dues 57/34/9 40/50/10 47/53 Yes 2005 74 Teacher Tenure 61/32/7 44/50/6 45/55 Yes 2005 73 Parental Notification of Teen Abortion 48/43/9 41/49/10 47/53 Yes 2004 72 Health Ins. Requirements 50/28/22 41/42/17 49/51 Yes 2004 71 Stem Cell Research Bonds 45/42/13 54/37/9 59/41 Yes 2004 70 Tribal Casino Gambling 33/40/27 22/64/14 24/76 Yes 2004 68 Non-Tribal Casino Gambling 30/48/22 17/72/11 16/84 Yes 2004 67 Emergency Services 37/47/16 37/50/13 28/72 Yes 2004 66 Three Strikes Limits 76/14/10 46/47/7 47/53 Yes 2004 64 Tort Limits 21/41/38 32/37/31 59/41 No 2004 63 Mental Health Services 59/29/12 56/31/13 54/46 Yes 2004 62 Open Primary Elections 50/37/13 40/38/22 46/54 No 2004 61 Child Hosp Bonds 47/31/22 54/29/17 58/42 Yes 2004 60 Prim Elections-Pol Parties 39/15/46 42/28/30 68/32 Yes 2004 58 Balanced Budget 49/22/29 55/28/17 71/29 Yes 2004 57 Economic Recovery Bonds 33/40/27 50/36/14 63/37 Yes 2004 56 State Budget Voting 37/36/27 33/51/16 34/66 Yes 2003 55 School Bonds 52/36/12 51/40/9 51/49 Yes 2003 Recall Recall of Gov. Davis 46/43/11 57/39/4 55/45 Yes 2003 54 Racial Privacy Initiative* 34/48/18 35/49/16 36/64 Yes 2002 52 Same Day Voter Registration 37/54/9 40/45/15 41/59 Yes 2002 50 Water Quality Bonds 52/31/17 42/34/24 55/45 Yes 2002 49 After School Programs 58/34/8 58/27/15 57/43 Yes 2002 47 Education Bonds 58/33/9 57/29/14 59/41 Yes 2002 45 Term Limits 40/45/15 37/51/12 42/58 Yes 2002 42 Transportation Funding 51/29/20 61/23/16 69/31 Yes 2000 39 School Bond Vote Threshold 45/41/14 46/42/12 57/43 Yes 2000 38 School Vouchers 39/39/22 34/60/6 29/71 Yes 2000 36 Drug Treatment Programs 64/20/16 50/34/16 61/39 Yes 2000 34 Campaign Contributions 50/23/27 44/35/21 60/40 Yes 2000 31 Insurance Claims 26/45/29 24/52/24 28/72 Yes 2000 30 Insurance Claims 25/46/29 22/54/24 31/69 Yes 2000 28 Repeal of Tobacco Surtax 36/59/5 32/59/9 28/72 Yes 2000 26 School Bonds Threshold 59/36/5 49/39/12 49/51 No 2000 25 Spending Limits/Public Financing 44/45/11 36/46/18 35/65 Yes 2000 23 None of the Above Ballot 48/44/8 24/56/20 36/64 Yes 2000 22 Definition of Marriage 55/39/6 53/40/7 61/39 Yes 2000 21 Juvenile Crime 55/32/13* 55/32/13 62/38 Yes 2000 12 Parks, Water, Air Bond 69/20/11 64/24/12 63/37 Yes 1998 10 Tobacco Tax 56/34/10 50/41/9 51/49 Yes 1998 9 Utilities 20/43/37 18/57/25 27/73 Yes 1998 8 Public Schools 55/24/21 40/42/18 37/63 Yes 1998 5 Indian Gaming 53/28/19 58/32/10 62/38 Yes 1998 3 Presidential Primary Rules 28/49/23 28/50/22 46/54 Yes 1998 227 Bilingual Education 69/24/7 61/33/6 61/39 Yes 1998 226 Union Dues 72/22/6 45/47/8 47/53 Yes 1998 223 School Spending 54/29/17 40/43/17 46/54 Yes 1996 215 Medical Marijuana 62/29/9 59/35/6 56/44 Yes 1996 211 Attorney Fees 41/27/32 28/54/18 26/74 Yes 1996 209 Anti-Affirmative Action 48/31/21 46/41/13 55/45 Yes 1996 203 School Bond 72/21/7 74/21/5 62/38 Yes 1996 202 Attorney Fee Limits 45/30/25 45/40/15 49/51 No 1996 201 Class-Action Suits 37/37/26 34/51/15 41/59 Yes 1996 200 No-Fault Auto Insurance 34/46/20 31/54/15 35/65 Yes 1996 198 Open Primary 62/26/12 62/31/7 60/40 Yes 1996 197 Mountain Lions 43/48/9 40/49/11 42/58 Yes 1996 192 Earthquake Retrofit 62/27/11 62/28/10 60/40 Yes         Yes: 75         No: 5     * Only one poll measurement conducted.

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