Field Poll Record in Measuring Top-of-the-Ticket Candidate Elections in California Throughout its history The Field Poll has tracked voter preferences in all major statewide elections in California since 1948. The following is a review of all 52 elections for President, Governor and U.S. Senator between 1948 and 2006 and compares The Field Poll's final pre-election results for the major party candidates to the actual share of the vote each received, excluding undecideds and minor party candidates. This comparison shows: In 48 of these 52 top-of-the-ticket races in California, the candidate leading in the final pre-election Field Poll won the election. This includes one race where the major party candidates were tied. More recently, the candidate leading in the final pre-election Field Poll has won election in all 22 of the 22 top-of-the-ticket election contests in California since 1984. The average deviation between The Field Poll's final pre-election poll and the actual percentage vote for the winning candidate across all 52 top-of-the-ticket election contests since 1948 has been 2.3 percentage points. Since 1984 the average deviation between the actual percentage vote for the winning candidate and his/her support in our final poll has been just 1.6 percentage points.

Final Pre-Election Estimates of The Field (California) Poll vs. Actual Election Outcomes (1948-2006)   Year Office Major Party Candidates Actual Vote % Dem/Rep/1 Field Poll Final Report % Dem/Rep/2 % Deviation for Winning Candidate Leading Candidate Wins Democrat Republican   2006 Gov. Angelides Schwarzenegger 41-59 40-60 1 Yes 2006 Sen. Feinstein Mountjoy 63-37 63-37 0 Yes 2004 Pres. Kerry Bush 55-45 54-46 1 Yes 2004 Sen. Boxer Jones 60-40 61-39 1 Yes 2003 Gov.+ Bustamante Schwarzenegger 39-61 42-58 3 Yes 2002 Gov. Davis Simon 53-47 55-45 2 Yes 2000 Pres. Gore Bush 56-44 53-47 3 Yes 2000 Sen. Feinstein Campbell 61-39 62-38 1 Yes 1998 Gov. Davis Lungren 60-40 58-42 2 Yes 1998 Sen. Boxer Fong 55-45 55-45 0 Yes 1996 Pres. Clinton Dole-(Perot) 53-40-(7) 52-40-(8) 1 Yes 1994 Gov. K. Brown Wilson 42-58 45-55 3 Yes 1994 Sen. Feinstein Huffington 51-49 54-46 3 Yes 1992 Sen. Feinstein Seymour 59-41 58-42 1 Yes 1992 Sen. Boxer Hershchensohn 53-47 51-49 2 Yes 1992 Pres. Clinton Bush-(Perot) 46-33-(21) 46-30-(24) 0 Yes 1990 Gov. Feinstein Wilson 48-52 45-55 3 Yes 1988 Sen. McCarthy Wilson 45-55 42-58 3 Yes 1988 Pres. Dukakis Bush 48-52 47-53 1 Yes 1986 Sen. Cranston Zschau 51-49 51-49 0 Yes 1986 Gov. Bradley Deukmejian 38-62 40-60 2 Yes 1984 Pres. Mondale Reagan 42-58 41-59 1 Yes 1982 Sen. Brown, Jr. Wilson 47-53 47-53 0 Yes 1982 Gov. Bradley Deukmejian 49-51 54-46 5 No 1980 Sen. Cranston Gann 60-40 65-35 5 Yes 1980 Pres. Carter Reagan 41-59 45-55 4 Yes 1978 Gov. Brown, Jr. Younger 61-39 63-37 2 Yes 1976 Sen. Tunney Hayakawa 48-52 51-49 3 No 1976 Pres. Carter Ford 49-51 47-53 2 Yes 1974 Sen. Cranson Richardson 63-37 70-30 7 Yes 1974 Gov. Brown, Jr. Flournoy 52-48 55-45 3 Yes 1972 Pres. McGovern    Nixon 43-57 42-58 1 Yes 1970 Sen. Tunney Murphy 55-45 54-46 1 Yes 1970 Gov. Unruh Reagan 46-54 43-57 3 Yes 1968 Sen. Cranston Rafferty 53-47 54-46 1 Yes 1968 Pres. Humphrey Nixon-(Wallace) 48-52-(7) 39-61-(9) 9 Yes 1966 Gov. Brown, Sr. Reagan 42-58 47-53 5 Yes 1964 Sen. Salinger Murphy 48-52 50-50 2 Yes* 1964 Pres. Johnson Goldwater 59-41 64-36 5 Yes 1962 Sen. Richards Kuchel 44-56 40-60 4 Yes 1962 Gov. Brown, Sr. Nixon 53-47 54-46 1 Yes 1960 Pres. Kennedy Nixon 50-50/3 51-49 1 No 1958 Sen. Engle Knight 57-43 56-44 1 Yes 1958 Gov. Brown, Sr. Knowland 60-40 62-38 2 Yes 1956 Sen Richards Kuchel 46-54 49-51 3 Yes 1956 Pres. Stevenson Eisenhower 44-56 45-55 1 Yes 1954 Sen. Yorty Kuchel 46-54 48-52 2 Yes 1954 Gov. Graves Knight 43-57 43-57 0 Yes 1952 Pres. Stevenson Eisenhower 43-57 47-53 4 Yes 1950 Sen. Douglas Nixon 41-59 43-57 2 Yes 1950 Gov. Roosevelt Warren 35-65 33-67 2 Yes 1948 Pres. Truman Dewey 50-50/4 47-53 3 No       Average Deviation   (1948-2006) 2.3 Yes: 48       (1984-2006) 1.6 No: 4     (1) Vote totals repercentaged to exclude minor party candidates. (2) Poll estimates repercentaged to exclude "undecideds" and minor party candidates. (3) Actual two-party vote percentages in 1960 Presidential election in California was 50.3 Nixon and 49.7 Kennedy. (4) Actual two-party vote percentages in 1948 Presidential election in California was 50.2 Truman and 49.8 Dewey. + Special gubernatorial recall election. * Leading candidate tied for lead in final pre-election poll.

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